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Quantitative risk analysis
Quantitative risk analyses uses a number of event tree combinations to assess the risk to personnel and assets, based on the combination of hazardous event frequencies
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Quantitative Risk Analysis
GOGERL uses Shell FRED, Shell SCOPE, BP CIRRUS, ABSC TRACE, which are all recognised and accepted consequence modelling software. GOGERL personnel are also familiar with using DNV’s Safeti and Phast modelling, as well as in-house excel models, based on basic fire engineering principles, all of which produce similar output results.
Quantitative risk analyses uses a number of event tree combinations to assess the risk to personnel and assets, based on the combination of hazardous event frequencies, consequence assessment, personnel distribution etc. to provide an overall risk picture of a facility.
VIDEOS
A number of GOGERL’s project experience is outlined as follows:
A detailed QRA study for the Al Khafji FDP Phase 1 Onshore gas processing facility was carried out. The study included consequence modelling, leak frequency analyses, personnel risk assessment, ALARP demonstration etc. as per the methodology, illustrated above.
The Al Khafji facility (a jointly operated development between Kuwait Oil company and Saudi Aramco) is a complex processing facility, comprising of oil and gas separation facilities, an LP, MP and gas lift compression packages, crude stabilisation packages etc.
A detailed QRA study for AGGS facilities including Otumara Node, Umuechem, Ahia and Adibawa flow stations was carried out as part of SPDC’s no flaring commitment.
In addition to fire risk assessment, location as well as personnel risks were estimated. The results were used as part of the ALARP demonstration in the design safety case.
A fire risk assessment and QRA study was carried out on the Hydrogen compression plant within the Mina Abdulla Refinery for Kuwait Oil Company (KOC). The study consisted of explosion modelling, location risk assessment, potential Loss of Life (PLL) etc.
The hazard risk from hydrogen is low due to the characteristics properties of hydrogen. Even though it is highly flammable and explosive, the gas rapidly dissipates following release.
KOC Gas Oil pipeline QRA study, consisting of fire modeling, Individual risk assessments (IRPA), public risks, evacuation assessments etc.
The 200km export gas oil pipeline runs from a refinery to two power stations in a dedicated pipeline corridor. Multiple fatalities were considered due to the proximity of the pipeline to populated areas.
GOGERL personnel have worked on a number of QRA studies for numerous offshore platforms in the North Sea in the UK:
- QRA studies for Shell’s Dunlin Alpha, Tern, Eider, and Brent Alpha safety cases, in preparation for safety case submissions
- QRA and Integrity assessment for Kerr McGee’s Ninian North platform and Ninian Central platform respectively.